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Presentation: Coronavirus Impacts on Trade and Supply Chains

Friday, April 10, 2020

by Jean-Paul Rodrigue

The unfolding COVID-19 pandemic is having unprecedented and unanticipated impacts on international trade and supply chains. The presentation tries to articulate the complex ramifications a pandemic can have on supply chains. It first looks at the role of transportation as a diffusion vector during a pandemic. Then, the continuity of supply chains is discussed. It is argued that a pandemic initially creates a supply chain shock as key manufacturing sectors may experience a drop in production capabilities, which was mainly observed in China. Then, this phase is followed by demand shocks as consumers respond through hoarding and acute behavioral change by focusing on essential goods. This quickly backpropagates along supply chains. A significant risk concerns if the collapse in demand can be deferred into future consumption. Otherwise, the current pandemic will result in long term impacts on supply chains if economic activities do not resume promptly.

Note: Due to the rapidly unfolding developments, the slides of this presentation are regularly updated and available here.

Click here to watch a video of this presentation