Xize Wang, a Ph.D. candidate in Urban Planning and Development at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, concluded METRANS’ Spring 2016 Research Seminar Series on April 20 with a presentation of his research on generational behavioral trends in driving rates.

Wang’s work concerns whether or not millennials will maintain their current low driving rates as they gradually enter the workforce, become homeowners, and raise families. Literature suggests that millennials will soon begin settling into suburbs, just like prior generations, a trend that may impact their transportation choices. Wang examined data from the USDOT National Personal Travel Survey of 1995 and the National Household Travel Surveys of 2001 and 2009 to detect possible changes in the correlation between population density and driving in metropolitan statistical areas. He explained in his presentation that a weakening relationship between density and driving would suggest that new millennial suburban homeowners are in fact continuing to drive less than other generations.

Wang also theorized that the changing correlation between land use and travel behavior may be a result of millennials’ increased technology use, their novel perceptions of urban resources, and their differing cultural attitudes and beliefs. If these cognitive patterns become permanent in millennials’ worldviews as they age, their comparatively lower driving rates may also stick.

Wang found decreasing vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) rates in six out of eight urban density clusters for Americans aged 16 to 28 between 1995 and 2009. He also demonstrated that the relationship between residential density and VMT, as well as car trips per day, was more inelastic for millennials than for Gen X-ers two decades ago. This means that millennials are increasing their driving rates less than Gen X-ers did as they moved from dense neighborhoods to suburbs.

After Wang’s 40 min. presentation came a brief Q&A session. Professors, students, and practitioners in the audience noted the economic significance of the transportation trends this research revealed. Dr. Genevieve Giuliano, Director of METRANS, posed the idea that commuting distances may have also changed between 1995 young adults and those of 2009, possibly contributing to the large VMT differences observed.

Xize Wang

Xize Wang is a PhD Candidate in Urban Planning and Development at the Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California.  His research interests are (1) transportation and urban form, (2) demography and travel and (3) active travel and sustainability.  He is currently investigating how vehicular demand in the US is impacted by current demographic shifts in immigration, millennials entering their adulthood, and the retirement of baby boomers.  Prior to joining the PhD program, Xize received B.E. in urban planning and B.A. in economics (with honors) at Peking University, Beijing, and Master of Urban and Regional Planning at University of Minnesota, Twin Cities.

Griffin Kantz

Griffin is a third-year undergraduate studying Sustainable Planning in the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy. He can be reached at [email protected].